← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 76.0% | +13.9 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.7% | -6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.0% | -16.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |